Sunday, March 9, 2008

MLB Preview '08: AL West

by Christopher Reardon

The AL West is a bit of a crap shoot. There's a lot of talent out there, and a number of winning teams, but it's a small division with no large market teams and it can sometimes be forgotten amidst monster clubs in the East and Central divisions. The fact that just one Western team (Oakland, which was swept by Detroit in the 2006 Championship Series) has made it past the first round of the playoffs since the Angels won the World Series in 2002 doesn't help matters.

1. Los Angeles Angels, 92-70
Or the California Angels of Anaheim Which is Located Somewhere Near Los Angeles, whatever they're called these days. This team has quite a bit of talent, and like the Twins are known for developing young players who know the game of baseball and play as such. The rotation features the right mix of veterans and young guns, with a perennial Cy Young contender in John Lackey, two veterans who have shown flashes of brilliance in their careers in Kelvim Escobar and newly acquired Jon Garland, and a couple young guys who have already proven themselves at the major league level in Ervin Santana and Jered Weaver (who, if you remember, forced his own brother Jeff out of the rotation a couple years ago). The offense received a boost with the addition of Torii Hunter, but this does create a logjam in the outfield with guys like Vlad Guerrero, Garret Anderson, Gary Matthews Jr., Juan Rivera, and a number of prospects ready to burst onto the scene. Still, the Mariners greatly improved their rotation with the addition of Erik Bedard, which is why I have the Angels winning two less games than last year.

2. Seattle Mariners, 90-72
Few major league teams can claim to have two bona fide aces manning their rotation and an elite closer at the back of the bullpen. The Mariners, however, have just that in Felix Hernandez, Erik Bedard, and J.J. Putz. After those names, though, the pitching in Seattle is a bit questionable. Carlos Silva is a decent pickup from Minnesota, a durable guy who will win ten or twelve games, and Miguel Batista won sixteen games last year, but these guys aren't going to blow anyone away. The Mariners' offense is made up of one of those typical B-List lineups you see a lot in smaller market teams, with the only consistent producer being Ichiro Suzuki. Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson have been spectacular at times, but not so much since joining Seattle. Beltre got a huge contract after his monster 2004 season with the Dodgers in which he led the league with 48 home runs, but he hasn't hit more than 26 dingers since and his on-base percentage has taken a huge dip as well. Meanwhile the always strikeout prone Sexson's declining batting average would be an easier pill to swallow if his power numbers didn't go right down with it. The Brad Wilkerson pickup from Texas is looking kind of... well... medium. There's some talk of Seattle signing Barry Bonds, which would definitely add some runs to the offense, but no one knows if the Mariners want that kind of circus in their clubhouse and media events. Overall I think Seattle is a better team than it was last year, but not quite good enough to overcome the Angels.

3. Texas Rangers, 75-87
This team, while not quite as bad as Oakland will be this year, is just not very good. The pitching is somewhat up in the air, there's no clear ace on a staff that includes Vincente Padilla, Kevin Millwood, Kameron Loe, Brandon McCarthy, and Robinson Tejeda. Combined these guys won 32 games last year (just twelve less than Cy Young runner-up Josh Beckett). Other names that may pop up in the rotation in some point are Jason Jennings and Kason Gabbard. While my roommate (still bitter over the Gagne trade) seems to think Gabbard will win the Cy Young one day, I'm not quite as impressed. The fact is this pitching staff is little more than a joke. The offense shows a little more promise. Michael Young won a batting title a few years ago and Ian Kinsler is turning out to be one of the better second baseman in the league. Jarrod Saltalamacchia might be one of the best young catchers out there, but he'll have to split time with Gerald Laird. The Josh Hamilton pickup from the Reds is exciting, as at times in his career he's been one of the most promising hitters around. His comeback from drug problems last year was successful until he spent two stints on the disabled list, but the Rangers are high on this five-tooled player. Shortstop Young even compared him to his predecessor Alex Rodriguez. On paper this Rangers team simply doesn't stack up against others in the American League, but behind the run-scoring strength of that offense they will manage to overtake the Athletics into third place in the AL West.

4. Oakland Athletics, 72-90
It's official. The A's, like the Orioles, have thrown in the towel and are accepting their status as a rebuilding team. This is why Dan Haren is now a member of the Arizona Diamondbacks and Nick Swisher has landed in the Chicago White Sox lineup. A quick look at the Athletics roster and you might be hard pressed to find a name you recognize. Okay, so Huston Street still anchors the bullpen and Joe Blanton... well, he's still in the rotation (for now). Offense? Maybe Jack Cust will have another decent season. Maybe. Eric Chavez was once one of the premier third baseman in the league, but he's been somewhat injury prone of late and his numbers have been down as a result. Besides Cust who had 26, no member of the A's current roster hit more than twenty dingers last year, and none of them had more than 85 RBI. This team is going to have a tough time scoring runs, and they may have a tougher time preventing them with that pitching staff. Barring the occasional baseball miracle, there's no way this team does any damage in this division.

Monday, March 3, 2008

MLB Preview '08: AL Central

by Christopher Reardon

In recent years it seems as if the balance of power in the American League has shifted a bit from the eastern division to the central, and with some of the moves that were made this off-season the East will be hard pressed to prove that wrong.

1. Detroit Tigers, 97-65
Simply put, the Tigers will feature perhaps the most fearsome offense in all of baseball, from top to bottom. Last season Detroit has some weak links at first and third with Sean Casey and Brandon Inge, respectively. So they go out early in the off-season and acquire Edgar Renteria to play shortstop, which frees up incumbent shortstop Carlos Guillen to play first base (and also frees up Casey to move on to the Red Sox to back up Kevin Youkilis). And if that wasn't enough to improve the lineup, the Tigers go out during the winter meetings and pull of the second biggest trade of the off-season by acquiring Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis from the Marlins for a package of prospects. Now Cabrera, one of the most talented and feared hitters in the majors, will man third base and Inge will become one of the more talented back ups in the bigs. Then there's a few guys like Magglio Ordonez (who came in second in MVP voting last season behind the monstrous A-Rod), Curtis Granderson (a superstar center-fielder with a very high ceiling still), Ivan Rodriguez (consistently one of the best catchers in the league even at 37), and Gary Sheffield (still one of the most feared hitters around, though he's the oldest member of this team's offense). Meanwhile, the pitching staff remains one of the most talented around with names like Justin Verlander, Jeremy Bonderman, and Willis if he can find his velocity and regain his 2005 form. Essentially, the entire team is stocked with talent and enough veteran presence to help everyone click. If I weren't such a fan of the defending World Series Champions, I'd say the Tigers are the team to beat in the American League in 2008. As it stands I wouldn't be surprised to see Detroit make its second appearance in the Fall Classic in the last three seasons.

2. Cleveland Indians, 95-67
Two years ago, experts said that 2008 would be the season of the Indians. Then came 2007, which saw the tribe tie the Red Sox for the best record in the American League, despite a lack of production from their usual heavy hitter Travis Hafner. So now comes 2008, which should see a return to form of Cleveland's formidable offense (also featuring guys like Victor Martinez, Grady Sizemore, and Ryan Garko) and a scary rotation anchored by reigning AL Cy Young Award winner C.C. Sabathia and by the man who came in fourth for the award, Fausto Carmona. Put all of that together, and no one would be surprised if the lofty 2008 predictions for the Indians came true... that is, if the tigers hadn't acquired Miguel Cabrera. So now it looks like Cleveland will be back in the number two slot in the their division, fighting it out for the wild card with New York and Seattle. In that battle, with some of the names on their roster, I'd take the Indians to make the playoffs despite not winning the division.

3. Chicago White Sox, 80-82
Last year was a bit of an enigma. Some of the biggest names in baseball experienced relative down years (like Manny Ramirez and the aforementioned Hafner) while some guys that were previously unheard of dominated (like Carlos Pena and Ryan Braun). Into the former category fell Chicago's Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye. Konerko, the captain of the Sox, saw a drop off of 54 points from his 2006 batting average and lost 23 in the RBI category. Dye, an MVP contender in 2006, dropped 61 points from his batting average, sixteen homers, and 42 RBI. That was a severe enough decrease in production to see the White Sox fall completely out of contention last season, and it wasn't helped by some poor performances by veteran pitchers Jose Contreras and Jon Garland. For 2008 Garland has been shipped off to the Angels and Konerko and Dye will be joined by Orlando Cabrera and Nick Swisher. This (coupled with the likelihood of the two incumbent big bats improving on last season's performance) indicates an upgrade on offense, but the pitching staff will be run by a lot of young prospects who don't have much major league experience, leaving some questions there. On paper this team is not good enough to overcome the fearsome Tigers and Indians, but crazier things have happened in baseball. Still, a betting man would find it hard to put the Sox above third in this intense division.

4. Minnesota Twins, 77-85
Well, Johan Santana is a New York Met now. That's quite enough to spell disaster for a small market team such as the Twins. True, Minnesota has always had a strong minor league development system, meaning that most of their players are ready and quite able to play at the major league level. This, however, will not be enough in 2008 to help them move forward in their division. Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer are quality players, to be sure, but the loss of Torii Hunter to the Angels stings and there simply isn't enough talent in the lineup to allow Minnesota to compete in this division. The addition of Delmon Young from Tampa Bay helps, and Francisco Liriano could return at some point in the year, but it will only stave off the inevitable fall from grace of the once great Twins.

5. Kansas City Royals, 70-92
Poor Kansas City fans. There hasn't been very much to get excited for in recent years. And now former captain Mike Sweeney has signed a minor league contract with the Oakland A's. That's not an indication of bad things to come... right? In this division, in this league even, Kansas City will never be able to compete. Alex Gordon and Mark Teahan perhaps have bright futures ahead of them, but they haven't proven very much at the major league level yet and still they will be depended upon to anchor an offense that won't score very many runs against American League pitchers. As for the pitching staff? When Gil Meche is your ace, you know you've got problems. He did OK last season by posting a 3.67 ERA, but still only managed a sad 9-13 record with that offense behind him. Joakim Soaria might do good things at the back end of the bullpen, though save oppurtunities in Kansas City may be at a premium.